Guide
From reading the data to placing your first trade — everything in one place.
What is SignalOnly?
Polymarket is a prediction market where people bet real money on the outcome of world events — elections, sports, economics, and more. Prices reflect the crowd's probability estimate: an outcome priced at 70¢ means the market thinks it has a 70% chance of happening.
SignalOnly gives you a window into what the best traders on Polymarket are actually doing. Instead of relying on your own research alone, you can see which positions top-ranked traders are building, how large their bets are, and whether the market has caught up to them yet.
Consensus
A live snapshot of which outcomes the smartest traders agree on right now.
Activity
A real-time feed of every buy and sell from top traders, sorted by trade size.
Bot
An auto-trading tool that copies smart-money positions directly into your Polymarket account.
Watchlist
Save specific markets or traders so you can follow them without scrolling the full feed.
Understanding the data
Polymarket prices are probabilities. An outcome at 72¢ means the market collectively believes there's a 72% chance it happens. Prices move as new information arrives and as traders buy or sell. When a top-ranked trader is holding an outcome at a much lower price than it trades at today, that gap — called edge — is the key signal.
Edge
The difference between where pros entered and where the market is now. Positive edge means pros got in cheaper than today's price — the market has moved their way. Negative edge means the market has moved against them since they entered.
Pros pool
Traders ranked by all-time profit. These are the most consistently accurate predictors on Polymarket. A smaller group — usually the top few hundred — but their track record is the strongest signal of genuine edge.
Whales pool
Traders ranked by total trading volume. They move large amounts of money and their big bets can shift market prices — useful for spotting momentum early. Not every high-volume trader is consistently profitable.
What makes a strong signal
Multiple high-ranked traders (rank < 50) in the same outcome, with a meaningful position size, and a current price that still hasn't fully caught up to their entry thesis. The combination of consensus + conviction + remaining upside is what you're looking for.
What makes a weak signal
A single trader in a position, or traders ranked outside the top 200, or a market that has already moved sharply since their entry. More traders agreeing on the same outcome is almost always a better signal than one large bet.
How prices update
Prices and positions refresh on a schedule in the background. Use the Refresh button on any tab to force a fresh snapshot. The data age is shown at the top of each page so you always know how current it is.
The Consensus tab
Consensus shows you the positions where multiple high-ranked traders currently agree. Each row is one outcome in a market — for example "Djokovic wins Wimbledon" or "Fed cuts rates in September". The more traders in the same position, and the bigger their combined bet, the more prominent the row appears.
Trader count
How many top traders are currently holding this outcome. The higher the number, the stronger the consensus signal.
Current price
The live market price for this outcome in cents. 100¢ = near certainty. 1¢ = near impossible. Think of it as the market's live probability percentage.
Entry price
The average price at which the tracked traders got in. If current price is higher than entry price, the traders are in profit.
Position size
Total dollars committed by all tracked traders in this outcome.
Leaderboard rank
The rank of the best trader holding this position. Rank 1 is the highest all-time profit earner on Polymarket. Lower number = more elite trader.
Side — Popular vs Contrarian
Popular means this outcome is already the market favourite (price above 50¢). Contrarian means the tracked traders are betting against the crowd (price below 50¢).
The Activity tab
Activity shows individual trade events in real time — every time a tracked top trader opens a position, adds to one, or exits. Entries are sorted newest first, so you can see what smart money is doing right now.
Opened
The trader entered this market for the first time. They had no prior position in this outcome and just placed a bet.
Increased
The trader already held this position and added more money to it. This is a conviction signal — they liked it enough to put more in.
Exited
The trader sold or closed their position. Worth watching — if a top trader is getting out, something may have changed their view.
Size ($)
How much money moved in this single trade. A $10,000 move from a rank-1 trader is a much stronger signal than a $50 move from rank 500.
The Correlations tab
Correlations lets you pick a group of top traders and instantly see which positions they all share. It's the fastest way to find markets where multiple smart-money traders have independently reached the same conclusion — a much stronger signal than one trader alone.
Selecting traders
The left sidebar lists the top 40 traders by number of open positions. Check any combination of traders. Use All / None to select or clear the whole list quickly. The top 5 are pre-selected on load.
Shared positions table
The right panel shows every outcome held by at least N of your selected traders. The Traderscolumn shows coloured chips — bright chip means that trader holds it, faded means they don't.
Min shared slider
Sets the minimum number of selected traders that must share a position for it to appear. Set it to 2 to see anything two or more of your picks agree on. Raise it to find only the highest-conviction overlaps.
Price column
The current market price in cents. Compare this to where you think fair value is — a position shared by 5 top traders at 30¢ is very different from one shared by 5 at 80¢.
Watchlist
The Watchlist lets you pin specific markets and traders so they appear in one place without needing to scroll through the full Consensus or Activity feed. Useful when you want to track a handful of positions closely over time.
Starring a market
Click the star icon (☆) on any row in the Consensus tab to add that outcome to your watchlist. Starred rows get a filled star (★). Click again to remove.
Watching a trader
In the Activity tab, click the star next to any trader's name to follow them. Their trades will appear separately in your watchlist so you can track one person's moves without noise from the full feed.
Watchlist tab
The dedicated Watchlist page collects everything you've starred — markets and traders — in one place. It updates with the same data as the main tabs.
Persistence
Your watchlist is saved to your account, not just your browser. It will be there when you log in from a different device.
Personalization
The Account tab has a Personalization section that lets you adjust how the app looks and behaves. All preferences are saved locally in your browser.
Theme
Switch between Light, Dark, and System mode. System matches your operating system's current appearance setting automatically.
Accent color
Changes the colour used for buttons and interactive elements throughout the app. Pick from Zinc (default), Blue, Purple, Green, Rose, or Orange.
Default trader pool
Chooses which pool — Pros or Whales — opens first when you visit the Consensus and Activity tabs. Set it to whichever you use most to skip an extra click.
Compact numbers
When on, large numbers display as $1.2M instead of $1,200,000. Useful on smaller screens or if you prefer a cleaner look. Defaults to on.
Plans & what you get
SignalOnly has four tiers. All plans give you access to the same underlying data — the difference is how deep you can go and what tools you have to act on it.
Free
See one consensus position — enough to get a feel for the platform and what smart-money data looks like. No credit card required.
Basic — $9.99/mo
Full access to the Consensus tab (all positions, all filters), the Watchlist, and up to 10 activity events per day. Good for casual followers who want to know what pros are holding without needing real-time updates.
Premium — $49.99/mo
Everything in Basic plus the Whales pool (top 1,000 traders by volume), the full live Activity feed, custom alert rules with email notifications, trader track records, saved screens, and on-demand refresh. The full intelligence suite.
Ultimate — $99.99/mo (Coming Soon)
Everything in Premium plus the auto-trading bot, Copy & Snipe buttons for instant one-click trades, and the Portfolio tab with live P&L. For users who want the platform to act on signals automatically.
A word on expectations
We want to be straight with you: this platform is a tool, not a guarantee. Seeing what top traders are holding gives you better information than most people have — but it does not mean you will make money. Markets are uncertain by nature. Even the best traders on Polymarket are wrong sometimes, and what worked last month may not work next month.
Prediction markets reward patience, discipline, and independent thinking. Following smart money blindly without understanding why they hold a position is a fast way to lose. Use the data as one input — not the only input.
We are not financial advisors. Nothing on this platform is financial advice. SignalOnly shows you data; what you do with it is entirely your decision and entirely your responsibility. We are not liable for any losses you incur through use of this platform. By continuing to use it you confirm you understand and accept that.
Full terms: Terms of Use & Financial Disclaimer
Copy & Snipe — instant live trades
Every row on the Consensus, Activity, and Correlations tabs has two trade buttons that let you enter a live position with one click. Both require the Ultimate plan and a connected Polymarket wallet.
Copy button
Click Copy on any position to open a small amount field right inline. Type the dollar amount you want to spend and press Buy (or Enter). A market order is placed immediately at the current price.
⚡ Snipe button
Snipe uses a preset amount you configure in Account → Snipe settings and places the order with no confirmation — zero friction for fast-moving markets. If no amount is set you'll be told to configure one first.
Set your snipe amount
Go to Account and find Snipe settingsin the Personalization section. Enter the amount in USD you want the Snipe button to spend per trade, then click Save. It's stored in your browser.
Connect your wallet
If you haven't already, go to Bot → Connect Polymarket accountand paste your API key, secret, and passphrase. Copy and Snipe use the same credentials.
Start trading
Browse Consensus, Activity, or Correlations. Hit Copy for a custom amount, or ⚡ Snipe for instant entry. Trades appear in your live portfolio within seconds.
Setting up the bot
The bot watches for qualifying smart-money moves and automatically places the same trade in your Polymarket account. You set the rules — which traders to copy, how much to bet, and when to exit. The bot handles the rest.
Start with paper mode
Paper mode gives you a simulated $5,000 balance and copies every bot decision without spending real money. Use it to see what the bot would have traded and how it performs before committing real funds.
Choose a risk preset
Pick Conservative, Balanced, or Aggressive at the top of the Strategy section. Each preset sets all filters at once. Conservative is tighter and trades less; Aggressive is looser and trades more. You can tweak any field after applying a preset.
Save your strategy
Click Save strategyafter making any changes. Changes that aren't saved will be lost when you leave the page.
Start the bot
Click Start bot. It will immediately scan for qualifying trades and show results in the Activity log. After that it checks automatically in the background — use Run now whenever you want an immediate scan.
Connecting your Polymarket account
Polymarket US uses an API key system — not your Ethereum private key. You generate a dedicated Key ID and Secret Key directly on the Polymarket developer portal and paste them into the Bot tab. Your actual wallet never leaves Polymarket.
How to get your API credentials:
Go to the Polymarket developer page
Visit polymarket.us/developer while logged in to your Polymarket account. You must have a US-verified Polymarket account to access this page.
Create an API key
Click Create API Key. Polymarket will generate a Key ID (a UUID like c13ac5cc-79ee-…) and a Secret Key (a long base64 string). Copy both immediately — the secret is only shown once.
Paste them into the Bot tab
In the Bot tab, click Connectunder "Polymarket API credentials". Paste your Key ID and Secret Key into the two fields and click Connect. You'll see "Connected — Key ID …" once it's saved.
Strategy settings explained
Every strategy setting is a filter. The bot only enters a trade when all your filters are satisfied at the same time. Adding more filters means higher-quality trades but fewer of them. If the bot isn't entering anything, try loosening a filter.
Trader pool — Pros vs Whales
Pros are ranked by total profit (the most accurate signal of who actually knows what they're doing). Whales are ranked by trading volume — you spot their big moves faster, but not every large trader is consistently profitable.
Copy when trader…
When the bot is allowed to enter. "Opens a position" = follow on their first buy. "Adds to a position" = only follow when they add more (stronger conviction). "Already holding" = enter any position currently held by qualifying traders, even if they opened it weeks ago.
Max trader rank
Only copy traders ranked at or better than this number. Rank 1 is the top earner on Polymarket. Setting this to 25 means the bot only follows the top 25 traders. Lower numbers = more selective.
Min trade size ($)
Ignore trades smaller than this dollar amount. Small trades may be exploratory or noise. Raising this ensures you're copying meaningful, intentional positions.
Min traders in position
How many top traders must already hold this outcome before the bot enters. Setting 1 means follow anyone. Setting 3 means at least 3 top traders must agree. Higher values mean stronger consensus but fewer opportunities.
Side
Controls whether the bot bets with or against the crowd. Keep this on "Any" for most use cases — sports markets and multi-outcome events have all options priced below 50¢, so "With the crowd" would block all trades in those markets.
Price band (¢)
Only enter outcomes priced in this range. This filters out near-certainties (above 95¢) and extreme longshots (below 5¢). Widen the range for more trades.
Bet size ($)
How much money the bot puts into each trade. In paper mode this comes from your virtual $5,000. In live mode it comes from your real Polymarket balance.
Max open positions
The maximum number of trades the bot holds at one time. Once this limit is reached, the bot won't open new positions until existing ones close.
Take profit (%)
Automatically close a position when it has gained this percentage. For example, 50% means sell when the position is up 50% from your entry. Leave blank to hold until another exit condition triggers.
Stop loss (%)
Automatically close a position when it has lost this percentage. For example, 30% means sell when the position is down 30% from your entry. Protects you from large losses on any single trade.
Min / Max days to end
Filter markets by how soon they resolve. Set a minimum to avoid markets that are about to close (not enough time for the trade to play out). Set a maximum to avoid very long-dated markets where your money would be tied up for months.
Exit before end (hours)
Automatically sell any position this many hours before the market closes. Useful if you don't want to hold through the final moments before resolution.
Exit when copied trader exits
If the trader you copied sells their position, the bot sells yours too. Highly recommended — top traders often exit for a reason, and their sell timing can be as valuable as their entry timing.
Manual exit only
Turns off all automatic exits. The bot will only close positions when you click the Exit button yourself. Use this if you want full manual control over when trades close.
Running the bot
Start bot
Turns the bot on. It immediately scans for qualifying trades so you see results straight away, then continues checking in the background automatically.
Run now
Triggers an immediate scan without waiting. Use this after changing your strategy or after refreshing prices to see updated results right away.
Refresh prices
Updates the price data the bot uses to find and evaluate trades. This takes 1–5 minutes. Run it when your positions are showing prices that seem out of date, or when you want the bot to find the most current opportunities.
Stop bot
Pauses all future bot activity. You can choose to exit all your current positions at that moment, or keep them open and manage them yourself.
Reading your positions
The Open positions section shows every trade the bot currently holds. Clicking a market title takes you to the live market on Polymarket.
Bot entry price
The price (in cents) when your bot entered this trade. This is the price used to calculate your P&L.
Current price (now)
The latest known price for this outcome. This updates when you load the page or click Refresh prices. If it shows a dash (—), the market may have resolved or been delisted — refresh prices to check.
Unrealized P&L
How much you would make or lose if you exited right now. This is not locked in until you actually close the position.
P&L percentage
The percentage gain or loss relative to your entry. Small-price positions can show very large percentages — a position that goes from 0.5¢ to 5¢ is +900%, even though the dollar gain depends on how much you bet.
Green / red current price
A current price shown in green means the outcome is at 99¢+ and the market is about to resolve in your favour. Red means it has dropped to 1¢ or below and is essentially worthless. The bot will automatically exit both cases on its next run.
Trade history & P&L
Closed positions, the full P&L chart, and the bot activity log are all in the Portfolio tab. There you can also clear old trades while keeping your cumulative P&L intact, and switch between paper and live views.
The Portfolio tab
The Portfolio tab is your performance dashboard. It keeps paper and live data completely separate — switching modes shows only that mode's history, chart, and positions.
P&L chart
A cumulative area chart showing how your paper portfolio has grown (or shrunk) trade by trade. The chart is green when you're net positive and red when net negative. It persists even after you clear your trade history.
Open positions
The same positions shown on the Bot tab — all trades the bot currently holds in this mode. Click a market title to go to the live Polymarket page.
Trade history (paper)
Every closed paper trade with entry price, exit price, exit reason, and final P&L. Click Clear historyto archive the list — the P&L is preserved in the chart and summary cards.
Activity log (paper)
A chronological log of every bot action: trade entries, exits, and errors. Click Clear log to reset it.
Live positions
In live mode, the Portfolio tab fetches your current open positions and balance directly from Polymarket. Positions opened by the bot are highlighted with a "Bot" badge; positions you placed manually on Polymarket show "Manual".
Clearing history
Clearing trade history removes closed trades from the list but never resets your total P&L. The realized gains or losses are banked into the summary cards and chart so your performance record is always accurate.
Paper trading vs live trading
Paper mode lets you test the bot without risking real money. Every decision the bot makes is tracked against a simulated $5,000 balance. No real orders are ever placed on Polymarket — it's purely a learning and testing tool.
Paper mode
No real money involved. Starts with a virtual $5,000. P&L is calculated from the price at the time the bot decided to trade — actual market fills may differ slightly in live mode. No wallet connection needed.
Live mode
Places real orders in your Polymarket account. Requires your wallet to be connected. P&L reflects what you actually bought and sold at. Only available when a wallet is connected.
Tips & best practices
The bot, portfolio, and instant-trade features are launching shortly.